Applied mathematical demography. Springer texts in statistics
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The third edition of this classic text maintains its focus on applications of demographic models, while extending its scope to matrix models for stage-classified populations. The authors first introduce the life table to describe age-specific mortality, and then use it to develop theory for stable populations and the rate of population increase. This theory is then revisited in the context of matrix models, for stage-classified as well as age-classified populations. Reproductive value and the stable equivalent population are introduced in both contexts, and Markov chain methods are presented to describe the movement of individuals through the life cycle. Applications of mathematical demography to population projection and forecasting, kinship, microdemography, heterogeneity, and multi-state models are considered. The new edition maintains and extends the book's focus on the consequences of changes in the vital rates. Methods are presented for calculating the sensitivity and elasticity of population growth rate, life expectancy, stable stage distribution, and reproductive value, and for applying those results in comparative studies. Stage-classified models are important in both human demography and population ecology, and this edition features examples from both human and non-human populations. In short, this third edition enlarges considerably the scope and power of demography. It will be an essential resource for students and researchers in demography and in animal and plant population ecology. Nathan Keyfitz is Professor Emeritus of Sociology at Harvard University. After holding positions at Canada's Dominion Bureau of Statistics, the University of Chicago, and the University of California at Berkeley, he became Andelot Professor of Sociology and Demography at Harvard in 1972. After retiring from Harvard, he became Director of the Population Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Vienna from 1983 to 1993. Keyfitz is a member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society of Canada, and a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He has received the Mindel Sheps Award of the Population Association of America and the Lazarsfeld Award of the American Sociological Association, and was the 1997 Laureate of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population. He has written 12 books, including Introduction to the Mathematics of Population (1968) and, with Fr. Wilhelm Flieger, SVD, World Population Growth and Aging: Demographic Trends in the Late Twentieth Century (1990). Hal Caswell is a Senior Scientist in the Biology Department of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, where he holds the Robert W. Morse Chair for Excellence in Oceanography. He is a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He has held a Maclaurin Fellowship from the New Zealand Institute of Mathematics and its Applications and a John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Fellowship. His research focuses on mathematical population ecology with applications in conservation biology. He is the author of Matrix Population Models: Construction, Analysis, and Interpretation (2001). Hardcover, Ausgabe: 2 Sub, Label: Springer, Springer, Produktgruppe: Book, Publiziert: 1985-09-09, Studio: Springer, Verkaufsrang: 9585838.

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The third edition of this classic text maintains its focus on applications of demographic models, while extending its scope to matrix models for stage-classified populations. The authors first introduce the life table to describe age-specific mortality, and then use it to develop theory for stable populations and the rate of population increase. This theory is then revisited in the context of matrix models, for stage-classified as well as age-classified populations. Reproductive value and the stable equivalent population are introduced in both contexts, and Markov chain methods are presented to describe the movement of individuals through the life cycle. Applications of mathematical demography to population projection and forecasting, kinship, microdemography, heterogeneity, and multi-state models are considered. The new edition maintains and extends the book's focus on the consequences of changes in the vital rates. Methods are presented for calculating the sensitivity and elasticity of population growth rate, life expectancy, stable stage distribution, and reproductive value, and for applying those results in comparative studies. Stage-classified models are important in both human demography and population ecology, and this edition features examples from both human and non-human populations. In short, this third edition enlarges considerably the scope and power of demography. It will be an essential resource for students and researchers in demography and in animal and plant population ecology. Nathan Keyfitz is Professor Emeritus of Sociology at Harvard University. After holding positions at Canada's Dominion Bureau of Statistics, the University of Chicago, and the University of California at Berkeley, he became Andelot Professor of Sociology and Demography at Harvard in 1972. After retiring from Harvard, he became Director of the Population Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Vienna from 1983 to 1993. Keyfitz is a member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society of Canada, and a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He has received the Mindel Sheps Award of the Population Association of America and the Lazarsfeld Award of the American Sociological Association, and was the 1997 Laureate of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population. He has written 12 books, including Introduction to the Mathematics of Population (1968) and, with Fr. Wilhelm Flieger, SVD, World Population Growth and Aging: Demographic Trends in the Late Twentieth Century (1990). Hal Caswell is a Senior Scientist in the Biology Department of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, where he holds the Robert W. Morse Chair for Excellence in Oceanography. He is a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He has held a Maclaurin Fellowship from the New Zealand Institute of Mathematics and its Applications and a John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Fellowship. His research focuses on mathematical population ecology with applications in conservation biology. He is the author of Matrix Population Models: Construction, Analysis, and Interpretation (2001). Hardcover, Ausgabe: 2 Sub, Label: Springer, Springer, Produktgruppe: Book, Publiziert: 1985-09-09, Studio: Springer, Verkaufsrang: 9585838.

Von Händler/Antiquariat, Petra Gros [1048006], Koblenz, Germany.
441 S. Das hier angebotene Buch stammt aus einer teilaufgelösten wissenschaftlichen Bibliothek und trägt die entsprechenden Kennzeichnungen (Rückenschild, Instituts-Stempel.). Der Buchzustand ist ansonsten ordentlich und dem Alter entsprechend gut. CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 Introduction: Population Without Age 1 Definitions of Rate of Increase 1.1 Doubling Time and Half-life 3 The Period of Compounding. Application to Human History. Logarithms to Various Bases. Prospective Possible Doublings 1.2 One-Sex Versus Two-Sex Models: Descendants of the Pilgrim Fathers 9 1.3 How Many People Have Lived on the Earth? 12 1.4 A Mixture of Populations Having Different Rates of Increase 14 An Arithmetic Example for Two Subpopulations 1.5 Rate of Increase Changing Over Time 18 Special Cases of Changing Rates 1.6 Logistic Increase and Explosion 21 1.7 The Stalled Demographic Transition 23 1.8 Differential Fertility Due to the Demographic Transition 25 1.9 Matrices and Graphs in Demography 27 A Two-Subgroup Model. Irreducibility or Connectivity. Primitivity. Application to Birth and Death CHAPTER 2 The Life Table 34 2.1 Definition of Life Table Functions 34 Mortality the Same for All Ages 2.2 Life Tables Based on Data 36 Assuming Constant Probability of Dying Within the Age Interval. The Basic Equation and a Conventional Solution. A Precise Life Table xiii /860727513"iv Contents Without Iteration or Graduation. Greville and Reed-Merrell Methods Derived as Special Cases. Bounds on Error 2.3 Further Small Corrections 45 Measure of Exposure 2.4 Period and Cohort Tables 46 2.5 Financial Calculations 47 Single-Payment Annuity and Insurance. Annual Premiums and Reserves 2.6 Cause-Deleted Tables and Multiple Decrement 48 Dependence of Causes of Death. Method of Calculation. Multiple Decrement 2.7 The Life Table as a Unifying Technique in Demography 52 CHAPTER 3 Mortality Comparisons; The Male-Female Ratio 54 Variation by Age in the Sex Ratio of Mortality 3.1 The Multiplicity of Index Numbers 55 Weighted Index of Male to Female Mortality. Aggregative Indices Versus Averages of Relatives 3.2 Should We Index Death Rates or Survivorships? 60 3.3 Effect on e of Change in fj.(x) 62 0 A Proportional Difference Uniform at All Ages. Observed Values of the Constant H. An Aspect of the Index Number Problem. Fractional Change in Mortality Due to a Given Cause. Comparison of H(l) with 2o l) — &o- Interrelations of the Several Causes. 3.4 Everybody Dies Prematurely 72 Average Expectation of Life. Oldest Person in Group. Effect of a Health Improvement CHAPTER 4 Fixed Regime of Mortality and Fertility: The Uses of Stable Theory 77 4.1 Stable Theory 78 A Discrete Form 4.2 Population Growth Estimated from One Census 81 Effect of Choice of Model Life Table. Theory for the Error Arising from Use of an Improper Life Table 4.3 Mean Age in the Stable Population 87 Demographic Calculations Need Not Start at Age Zero. Use of Popula- tion Mean AgeContents xv 4.4 Rate of Increase Estimated from the Fraction Under Age 25 92 4.5 Birth Rate as Well as Rate of Increase Estimated for a Stable Population 94 4.6 Comparison of the Several Ways of Using the Age Distribution 96 Incomplete Population and Deaths. Estimates from Two Censuses 4.7 Sensitivity Analysis 103 Mean Age as a Function of Rate of Increase. Pension Cost. Fraction of Old People 4.8 The Degree to Which Promotion Within Organizations Depends on Population Increase 107 A Simplification. The Chain Letter Principle CHAPTER 5 Birth and the Intrinsic Rate of Natural Increase 112 5.1 The Characteristic Equation 113 Why Stress the Female Model? An Iterative Method for Calculating r. The Intrinsic Rate for Various Kinds of Data. Male Period Intrinsic Rates. Cohort Intrinsic Rate. Intrinsic Rate for One Family 5.2 A Variant Form of the Characteristic Equation 118 5.3 Perturbation Analysis of the Intrinsic Rate 120 How the Intrinsic Rate Varies with the Moments. Change in Births at One Age 5.4 Arbitrary Pattern of Birth Rate Decline 123 Effect of Small Arbitrary Change in Birth Function. Amount of Change Needed for Drop to Bare Replacement. Effect of Uniformly Lower Death Rates 5.5 Drop in Births Required to Offset a Drop in Deaths 126 The Drop in Fertility That Would Offset a Drop in Mortality to Zero. Diseases of Infancy Versus Heart Disease: Their Effects on Population Increase 5.6 Moments of the Dying Population in Terms of Those of the Living, and Conversely 129 Expectation of Life as a Function of Crude Birth and Death Rates 5.7 Four Mathematical Formulations of the Basic Equation of Population 133 The Lotka Integral Equation. The Leslie Matrix. The Difference Equation. The von Foerster Partial Differential Equations. The Four Presentationsxvi Contents CHAPTER 6 Reproductive Value, with Applications to Migration, Contraception, and Zero Population Growth 142 6.1 Concept of Reproductive Value 143 Reproductive Value from the Lotka Integral Equation. One Woman Aged x. Stable Age Distribution. Arbitrary Age Distribution. Numerical Calculation 6.2 Ultimate Effect of Small Out-migration Occurring in a Given Year 149 6.3 Effect of Continuing Birth Control and Sterilization 150 6.4 Large Change in Regime 152 6.5 Emigration as a Policy Applied Year After Year 153 6.6 The Momentum of Population Growth 155 6.7 Eliminating Heart Disease Would Make Very Little Difference to Population Increase, Whereas Eradication of Malaria Makes a Great Deal of Difference 158 Appendix: Reproductive Value as a Contribution to Future Births _ 159 CHAPTER 7 Understanding Population Characteristics 162 7.1 Accounting for Age Distribution 163 Young and Old Populations. Age Distribution as a Function of Rate of Increase. Neutral and Nonneutral Change in Mortality. Accounting for Observed Ages. Are Birth or Death Rates the Major Influence on Age Distribution? 7.2 Why There Are More Women Than Men at Older Ages in Modern Populations 170 7.3 The Stable Equivalent 172 Population Projection and the Stable Approximation Thereto. Ap, Books.

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Von Händler/Antiquariat, Petra Gros, [3076014].
441 S. gebundene Ausgabe Das hier angebotene Buch stammt aus einer teilaufgelösten wissenschaftlichen Bibliothek und trägt die entsprechenden Kennzeichnungen (Rückenschild, Instituts-Stempel...). Der Buchzustand ist ansonsten ordentlich und dem Alter entsprechend gut. CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 Introduction: Population Without Age 1 Definitions of Rate of Increase 1.1 Doubling Time and Half-life 3 The Period of Compounding. Application to Human History. Logarithms to Various Bases. Prospective Possible Doublings 1.2 One-Sex Versus Two-Sex Models: Descendants of the Pilgrim Fathers 9 1.3 How Many People Have Lived on the Earth? 12 1.4 A Mixture of Populations Having Different Rates of Increase 14 An Arithmetic Example for Two Subpopulations 1.5 Rate of Increase Changing Over Time 18 Special Cases of Changing Rates 1.6 Logistic Increase and Explosion 21 1.7 The Stalled Demographic Transition 23 1.8 Differential Fertility Due to the Demographic Transition 25 1.9 Matrices and Graphs in Demography 27 A Two-Subgroup Model. Irreducibility or Connectivity. Primitivity. Application to Birth and Death CHAPTER 2 The Life Table 34 2.1 Definition of Life Table Functions 34 Mortality the Same for All Ages 2.2 Life Tables Based on Data 36 Assuming Constant Probability of Dying Within the Age Interval. The Basic Equation and a Conventional Solution. A Precise Life Table xiii /860727513"iv Contents Without Iteration or Graduation. Greville and Reed-Merrell Methods Derived as Special Cases. Bounds on Error 2.3 Further Small Corrections 45 Measure of Exposure 2.4 Period and Cohort Tables 46 2.5 Financial Calculations 47 Single-Payment Annuity and Insurance. Annual Premiums and Reserves 2.6 Cause-Deleted Tables and Multiple Decrement 48 Dependence of Causes of Death. Method of Calculation. Multiple Decrement 2.7 The Life Table as a Unifying Technique in Demography 52 CHAPTER 3 Mortality Comparisons The Male-Female Ratio 54 Variation by Age in the Sex Ratio of Mortality 3.1 The Multiplicity of Index Numbers 55 Weighted Index of Male to Female Mortality. Aggregative Indices Versus Averages of Relatives 3.2 Should We Index Death Rates or Survivorships? 60 3.3 Effect on e of Change in fj.(x) 62 0 A Proportional Difference Uniform at All Ages. Observed Values of the Constant H. An Aspect of the Index Number Problem. Fractional Change in Mortality Due to a Given Cause. Comparison of H(l) with 2o l) &o- Interrelations of the Several Causes. 3.4 Everybody Dies Prematurely 72 Average Expectation of Life. Oldest Person in Group. Effect of a Health Improvement CHAPTER 4 Fixed Regime of Mortality and Fertility: The Uses of Stable Theory 77 4.1 Stable Theory 78 A Discrete Form 4.2 Population Growth Estimated from One Census 81 Effect of Choice of Model Life Table. Theory for the Error Arising from Use of an Improper Life Table 4.3 Mean Age in the Stable Population 87 Demographic Calculations Need Not Start at Age Zero. Use of Popula- tion Mean AgeContents xv 4.4 Rate of Increase Estimated from the Fraction Under Age 25 92 4.5 Birth Rate as Well as Rate of Increase Estimated for a Stable Population 94 4.6 Comparison of the Several Ways of Using the Age Distribution 96 Incomplete Population and Deaths. Estimates from Two Censuses 4.7 Sensitivity Analysis 103 Mean Age as a Function of Rate of Increase. Pension Cost. Fraction of Old People 4.8 The Degree to Which Promotion Within Organizations Depends on Population Increase 107 A Simplification. The Chain Letter Principle CHAPTER 5 Birth and the Intrinsic Rate of Natural Increase 112 5.1 The Characteristic Equation 113 Why Stress the Female Model? An Iterative Method for Calculating r. The Intrinsic Rate for Various Kinds of Data. Male Period Intrinsic Rates. Cohort Intrinsic Rate. Intrinsic Rate for One Family 5.2 A Variant Form of the Characteristic Equation 118 5.3 Perturbation Analysis of the Intrinsic Rate 120 How the Intrinsic Rate Varies with the Moments. Change in Births at One Age 5.4 Arbitrary Pattern of Birth Rate Decline 123 Effect of Small Arbitrary Change in Birth Function. Amount of Change Needed for Drop to Bare Replacement. Effect of Uniformly Lower Death Rates 5.5 Drop in Births Required to Offset a Drop in Deaths 126 The Drop in Fertility That Would Offset a Drop in Mortality to Zero. Diseases of Infancy Versus Heart Disease: Their Effects on Population Increase 5.6 Moments of the Dying Population in Terms of Those of the Living, and Conversely 129 Expectation of Life as a Function of Crude Birth and Death Rates 5.7 Four Mathematical Formulations of the Basic Equation of Population 133 The Lotka Integral Equation. The Leslie Matrix. The Difference Equation. The von Foerster Partial Differential Equations. The Four Presentationsxvi Contents CHAPTER 6 Reproductive Value, with Applications to Migration, Contraception, and Zero Population Growth 142 6.1 Concept of Reproductive Value 143 Reproductive Value from the Lotka Integral Equation. One Woman Aged x. Stable Age Distribution. Arbitrary Age Distribution. Numerical Calculation 6.2 Ultimate Effect of Small Out-migration Occurring in a Given Year 149 6.3 Effect of Continuing Birth Control and Sterilization 150 6.4 Large Change in Regime 152 6.5 Emigration as a Policy Applied Year After Year 153 6.6 The Momentum of Population Growth 155 6.7 Eliminating Heart Disease Would Make Very Little Difference to Population Increase, Whereas Eradication of Malaria Makes a Great Deal of Difference 158 Appendix: Reproductive Value as a Contribution to Future Births _ 159 CHAPTER 7 Understanding Population Characteristics 162 7.1 Accounting for Age Distribution 163 Young and Old Populations. Age Distribution as a Function of Rate of Increase. Neutral and Nonneutral Change in Mortality. Accounting for Observed Ages. Are Birth or Death Rates the Major Influence on Age Distribution? 7.2 Why There Are More Women Than Men at Older Ages in Modern Populations 170 7.3 The Stable Equivalent 172 Population Projection and the Stable Approximation Thereto. Applica- tion of the Stable Equivalent Q. Relation Between Q and Reproductive Value V. A More General Stable Equivalent 7.4 Age at Marriage 178 A Sum of Random Intervals Model. Small Marriage Circles. How Many Households Are Implied by Birth, Death, and Marriage Rates? Intrinsic Rates of Natural Increase: Age, Parity, and Nuptiality. The Life Cycle. Married and Divorced. The Current Divorce-Marriage Ratio 7.5 The Foreign-born and Internal Migrants 190 A Matrix Analysis. Migration and AgeContents xvii 7.6 Human Stocks and Flows 192 7.7 The Demography of Organizations 197 Loss of Power. Organizing Political Success. Economic Hierarchies CHAPTER 8 Projection and Forecasting 201 8.1 Forecasting: Both Unavoidable and Impossible. Past Data, Present Action, and Future Conditions of Payoff 201 Heavy Stakes on Simultaneous Lotteries. Projection as Distinct from Prediction 8.2 The Technique of Projection 205 Survivorship. Reproduction. Extension to All Ages and Both Sexes. Age Versus Other Variables. Projection in a Heterogeneous Population 8.3 Applications of Projection 212 Population Dynamics with One Cause of Death Eliminated. Effect of Immediate Drop to Replacement Fertility 8.4 The Search for Constancies 217 Relational Methods. Mortality. Are Longitudinal Relations Demon- strated by Cross-Sectional Data? 8.5 Features of Forecasting and Forecasting Error 221 Extrapolation Versus Mechanism. Shape of the Projection Fan 8.6 The Components of Forecasting Error ex ante 227 The Length of the Experience Base 8.7 Ex post Evaluation of Point Estimates 230 Future Percentage Increase 8.8 A Division of Labor 233 The Loss Function Permits a Three-Way Division of Labor 8.9 Interval Estimates as Currently Provided 235 Official Agencies Have Backed into Confidence Intervals CHAPTER 9 Some Types of Instability 237 9.1 Absolute Change in Mortality the Same at All Ages 237 Inferring the Increase in Births. Increase in Person-Years in Cohort 9.2 Proportional Change in Mortality 240 Rate of Increase of Births. Change of l . Increase in Total Cohort 0 Population. Increase of Persons of Arbitrary Age 9.3 Changing Birth Rates 243 9.4 Announced Period Birth Rate Too High 245xviii Contents 9.5 Backward Population Projection 250 Application 9.6 The Time to Stability 255 The Criterion of Convergence. Use of the Characteristic Equation. An Exact Ratio of Partial Derivatives and an Approximation Thereto. Allowance for Different Ranges of Variance and Skewness Among Observed Populations. Time to Convergence. Theoretical Versus Empirical Relations 9.7 Retirement Pensions: Pay-as-You-Go Versus Actuarial Reserves 262 9.8 The Demography of Educational Organizations Under Changing Age Distributions 265 9.9 Two Levels of Students and Teachers 267 9.10 Mobility in an Unstable Population 269 9.11 The Easterlin Effect 270 CHAPTER 10 The Demographic Theory of Kinship 273 10.1 Probability of Living Ancestors 275 Counting Method. Probability Method. Living Mother by the Counting Method. Living Mother by Conditional Probability. Probability of Living Grandmother. Numerical Examples. Stable Results Versus a Kinship Census. An Approximation 10.2 Descendants 282 10.3 Sisters and Aunts 285 A Paradox: The Average Girl Seems to Have Too Many Sisters. Age Incidence of Childbearing Conditional on Birth of One Child. Aunts 10.4 Mean and Variance of Ages 289 Ascertainment 10.5 Generalization to Changing Rates of Birth and Death 291 10.6 Sensitivity Analysis 292 Decomposition of M (a), the Probability of a Living Mother. Other x Progenitors. Effect of Birth Pattern on Living Progenitors. Comparison of Effect of Birth and Death Rates 10.7 The Inverse Problem: Deriving Rates from Genealogies 299 10.8 Incest Taboo and Rate of Increase 300 10.9 The Bias Imposed by Age Difference on Cross-Cousin Marriage 301Contents xix CHAPTER 11 Microdemography 303 11.1 Births Averted by Contraception 303 Abstention. Births Avertedthe Causal Inference. Marginal Effect. Dropping the Contraceptive. Why 1000 Abortions Do Not Prevent 1000 Births in a Population. Abortion as a Backup to Contraception 11.2 Measurement of Fertility and Fecundity 315 Probability of Conception by Days of the Month. Mean Fecundity from Surveys. Homogeneous Populations. A Heterogeneous Popula- tion with Fecundity Constant for Each Woman. The Pearl Index Is the Harmonic Mean of the Distribution. The Gini Fertility Measure. Comparison of Pearl and Gini Estimates. Excursus on Averages. Graduation Uses Information Efficiently. Mean and Variance Simul- taneously Estimated by Graduation. Life Table Methods for Fertility. Relation of Micro to Population Replacement. How Surer Contracep- tion Reduces the Interval Between Births 11.3 Why Three-Child Families Constitute a Population Explosion, Whereas Two-Child Families Would Lead to the Extinction of Mankind 330 11.4 A Family-Building Strategy to Avoid Extinction 332 11.5 Sex Preference and the Birth Rate 335 An Approximation to the Harmonic Mean 11.6 Family-Building Strategy with Parental Control Over Sex of Children 338 11.7 Mean Family Size from Order-of-Birth Distribution 344 11.8 Parity Progression and Population Increase 345 11.9 For a Given Probability of Survivors, Lower Mortality Lowers the Rate of Increase 347 CHAPTER 12 The Multi-state Model 350 12.1 Single Decrement and Increment-Decrement 352 Matrix of Inputs 12.2 The Kolmogorov Equation 355 The Multiplicative Property. Probabilities Over Long Intervals 12.3 Expected Time in the Several States 358 Fertility Expectations 12.4 Projection 361XX Contents 12.5 Transition Versus Instantaneous Probability of Moving 362 12.6 Stable Population 366 CHAPTER 13 368 Family Demography 369 13.1 Definitions Classifications. Th, 1985. gebraucht gut, 790g, 2. Auflage, Internationaler Versand, PayPal, offene Rechnung, Banküberweisung, offene Rechnung (Vorkasse vorbehalten).

Lieferung aus: Deutschland, Versandkosten nach: Deutschland.
Von Händler/Antiquariat, Petra Gros, [3076014].
441 S. gebundene Ausgabe Das hier angebotene Buch stammt aus einer teilaufgelösten wissenschaftlichen Bibliothek und trägt die entsprechenden Kennzeichnungen (Rückenschild, Instituts-Stempel...). Der Buchzustand ist ansonsten ordentlich und dem Alter entsprechend gut. CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 Introduction: Population Without Age 1 Definitions of Rate of Increase 1.1 Doubling Time and Half-life 3 The Period of Compounding. Application to Human History. Logarithms to Various Bases. Prospective Possible Doublings 1.2 One-Sex Versus Two-Sex Models: Descendants of the Pilgrim Fathers 9 1.3 How Many People Have Lived on the Earth? 12 1.4 A Mixture of Populations Having Different Rates of Increase 14 An Arithmetic Example for Two Subpopulations 1.5 Rate of Increase Changing Over Time 18 Special Cases of Changing Rates 1.6 Logistic Increase and Explosion 21 1.7 The Stalled Demographic Transition 23 1.8 Differential Fertility Due to the Demographic Transition 25 1.9 Matrices and Graphs in Demography 27 A Two-Subgroup Model. Irreducibility or Connectivity. Primitivity. Application to Birth and Death CHAPTER 2 The Life Table 34 2.1 Definition of Life Table Functions 34 Mortality the Same for All Ages 2.2 Life Tables Based on Data 36 Assuming Constant Probability of Dying Within the Age Interval. The Basic Equation and a Conventional Solution. A Precise Life Table xiii /860727513"iv Contents Without Iteration or Graduation. Greville and Reed-Merrell Methods Derived as Special Cases. Bounds on Error 2.3 Further Small Corrections 45 Measure of Exposure 2.4 Period and Cohort Tables 46 2.5 Financial Calculations 47 Single-Payment Annuity and Insurance. Annual Premiums and Reserves 2.6 Cause-Deleted Tables and Multiple Decrement 48 Dependence of Causes of Death. Method of Calculation. Multiple Decrement 2.7 The Life Table as a Unifying Technique in Demography 52 CHAPTER 3 Mortality Comparisons The Male-Female Ratio 54 Variation by Age in the Sex Ratio of Mortality 3.1 The Multiplicity of Index Numbers 55 Weighted Index of Male to Female Mortality. Aggregative Indices Versus Averages of Relatives 3.2 Should We Index Death Rates or Survivorships? 60 3.3 Effect on e of Change in fj.(x) 62 0 A Proportional Difference Uniform at All Ages. Observed Values of the Constant H. An Aspect of the Index Number Problem. Fractional Change in Mortality Due to a Given Cause. Comparison of H(l) with 2o l) &o- Interrelations of the Several Causes. 3.4 Everybody Dies Prematurely 72 Average Expectation of Life. Oldest Person in Group. Effect of a Health Improvement CHAPTER 4 Fixed Regime of Mortality and Fertility: The Uses of Stable Theory 77 4.1 Stable Theory 78 A Discrete Form 4.2 Population Growth Estimated from One Census 81 Effect of Choice of Model Life Table. Theory for the Error Arising from Use of an Improper Life Table 4.3 Mean Age in the Stable Population 87 Demographic Calculations Need Not Start at Age Zero. Use of Popula- tion Mean AgeContents xv 4.4 Rate of Increase Estimated from the Fraction Under Age 25 92 4.5 Birth Rate as Well as Rate of Increase Estimated for a Stable Population 94 4.6 Comparison of the Several Ways of Using the Age Distribution 96 Incomplete Population and Deaths. Estimates from Two Censuses 4.7 Sensitivity Analysis 103 Mean Age as a Function of Rate of Increase. Pension Cost. Fraction of Old People 4.8 The Degree to Which Promotion Within Organizations Depends on Population Increase 107 A Simplification. The Chain Letter Principle CHAPTER 5 Birth and the Intrinsic Rate of Natural Increase 112 5.1 The Characteristic Equation 113 Why Stress the Female Model? An Iterative Method for Calculating r. The Intrinsic Rate for Various Kinds of Data. Male Period Intrinsic Rates. Cohort Intrinsic Rate. Intrinsic Rate for One Family 5.2 A Variant Form of the Characteristic Equation 118 5.3 Perturbation Analysis of the Intrinsic Rate 120 How the Intrinsic Rate Varies with the Moments. Change in Births at One Age 5.4 Arbitrary Pattern of Birth Rate Decline 123 Effect of Small Arbitrary Change in Birth Function. Amount of Change Needed for Drop to Bare Replacement. Effect of Uniformly Lower Death Rates 5.5 Drop in Births Required to Offset a Drop in Deaths 126 The Drop in Fertility That Would Offset a Drop in Mortality to Zero. Diseases of Infancy Versus Heart Disease: Their Effects on Population Increase 5.6 Moments of the Dying Population in Terms of Those of the Living, and Conversely 129 Expectation of Life as a Function of Crude Birth and Death Rates 5.7 Four Mathematical Formulations of the Basic Equation of Population 133 The Lotka Integral Equation. The Leslie Matrix. The Difference Equation. The von Foerster Partial Differential Equations. The Four Presentationsxvi Contents CHAPTER 6 Reproductive Value, with Applications to Migration, Contraception, and Zero Population Growth 142 6.1 Concept of Reproductive Value 143 Reproductive Value from the Lotka Integral Equation. One Woman Aged x. Stable Age Distribution. Arbitrary Age Distribution. Numerical Calculation 6.2 Ultimate Effect of Small Out-migration Occurring in a Given Year 149 6.3 Effect of Continuing Birth Control and Sterilization 150 6.4 Large Change in Regime 152 6.5 Emigration as a Policy Applied Year After Year 153 6.6 The Momentum of Population Growth 155 6.7 Eliminating Heart Disease Would Make Very Little Difference to Population Increase, Whereas Eradication of Malaria Makes a Great Deal of Difference 158 Appendix: Reproductive Value as a Contribution to Future Births _ 159 CHAPTER 7 Understanding Population Characteristics 162 7.1 Accounting for Age Distribution 163 Young and Old Populations. Age Distribution as a Function of Rate of Increase. Neutral and Nonneutral Change in Mortality. Accounting for Observed Ages. Are Birth or Death Rates the Major Influence on Age Distribution? 7.2 Why There Are More Women Than Men at Older Ages in Modern Populations 170 7.3 The Stable Equivalent 172 Population Projection and the Stable Approximation Thereto. Applica- tion of the Stable Equivalent Q. Relation Between Q and Reproductive Value V. A More General Stable Equivalent 7.4 Age at Marriage 178 A Sum of Random Intervals Model. Small Marriage Circles. How Many Households Are Implied by Birth, Death, and Marriage Rates? Intrinsic Rates of Natural Increase: Age, Parity, and Nuptiality. The Life Cycle. Married and Divorced. The Current Divorce-Marriage Ratio 7.5 The Foreign-born and Internal Migrants 190 A Matrix Analysis. Migration and AgeContents xvii 7.6 Human Stocks and Flows 192 7.7 The Demography of Organizations 197 Loss of Power. Organizing Political Success. Economic Hierarchies CHAPTER 8 Projection and Forecasting 201 8.1 Forecasting: Both Unavoidable and Impossible. Past Data, Present Action, and Future Conditions of Payoff 201 Heavy Stakes on Simultaneous Lotteries. Projection as Distinct from Prediction 8.2 The Technique of Projection 205 Survivorship. Reproduction. Extension to All Ages and Both Sexes. Age Versus Other Variables. Projection in a Heterogeneous Population 8.3 Applications of Projection 212 Population Dynamics with One Cause of Death Eliminated. Effect of Immediate Drop to Replacement Fertility 8.4 The Search for Constancies 217 Relational Methods. Mortality. Are Longitudinal Relations Demon- strated by Cross-Sectional Data? 8.5 Features of Forecasting and Forecasting Error 221 Extrapolation Versus Mechanism. Shape of the Projection Fan 8.6 The Components of Forecasting Error ex ante 227 The Length of the Experience Base 8.7 Ex post Evaluation of Point Estimates 230 Future Percentage Increase 8.8 A Division of Labor 233 The Loss Function Permits a Three-Way Division of Labor 8.9 Interval Estimates as Currently Provided 235 Official Agencies Have Backed into Confidence Intervals CHAPTER 9 Some Types of Instability 237 9.1 Absolute Change in Mortality the Same at All Ages 237 Inferring the Increase in Births. Increase in Person-Years in Cohort 9.2 Proportional Change in Mortality 240 Rate of Increase of Births. Change of l . Increase in Total Cohort 0 Population. Increase of Persons of Arbitrary Age 9.3 Changing Birth Rates 243 9.4 Announced Period Birth Rate Too High 245xviii Contents 9.5 Backward Population Projection 250 Application 9.6 The Time to Stability 255 The Criterion of Convergence. Use of the Characteristic Equation. An Exact Ratio of Partial Derivatives and an Approximation Thereto. Allowance for Different Ranges of Variance and Skewness Among Observed Populations. Time to Convergence. Theoretical Versus Empirical Relations 9.7 Retirement Pensions: Pay-as-You-Go Versus Actuarial Reserves 262 9.8 The Demography of Educational Organizations Under Changing Age Distributions 265 9.9 Two Levels of Students and Teachers 267 9.10 Mobility in an Unstable Population 269 9.11 The Easterlin Effect 270 CHAPTER 10 The Demographic Theory of Kinship 273 10.1 Probability of Living Ancestors 275 Counting Method. Probability Method. Living Mother by the Counting Method. Living Mother by Conditional Probability. Probability of Living Grandmother. Numerical Examples. Stable Results Versus a Kinship Census. An Approximation 10.2 Descendants 282 10.3 Sisters and Aunts 285 A Paradox: The Average Girl Seems to Have Too Many Sisters. Age Incidence of Childbearing Conditional on Birth of One Child. Aunts 10.4 Mean and Variance of Ages 289 Ascertainment 10.5 Generalization to Changing Rates of Birth and Death 291 10.6 Sensitivity Analysis 292 Decomposition of M (a), the Probability of a Living Mother. Other x Progenitors. Effect of Birth Pattern on Living Progenitors. Comparison of Effect of Birth and Death Rates 10.7 The Inverse Problem: Deriving Rates from Genealogies 299 10.8 Incest Taboo and Rate of Increase 300 10.9 The Bias Imposed by Age Difference on Cross-Cousin Marriage 301Contents xix CHAPTER 11 Microdemography 303 11.1 Births Averted by Contraception 303 Abstention. Births Avertedthe Causal Inference. Marginal Effect. Dropping the Contraceptive. Why 1000 Abortions Do Not Prevent 1000 Births in a Population. Abortion as a Backup to Contraception 11.2 Measurement of Fertility and Fecundity 315 Probability of Conception by Days of the Month. Mean Fecundity from Surveys. Homogeneous Populations. A Heterogeneous Popula- tion with Fecundity Constant for Each Woman. The Pearl Index Is the Harmonic Mean of the Distribution. The Gini Fertility Measure. Comparison of Pearl and Gini Estimates. Excursus on Averages. Graduation Uses Information Efficiently. Mean and Variance Simul- taneously Estimated by Graduation. Life Table Methods for Fertility. Relation of Micro to Population Replacement. How Surer Contracep- tion Reduces the Interval Between Births 11.3 Why Three-Child Families Constitute a Population Explosion, Whereas Two-Child Families Would Lead to the Extinction of Mankind 330 11.4 A Family-Building Strategy to Avoid Extinction 332 11.5 Sex Preference and the Birth Rate 335 An Approximation to the Harmonic Mean 11.6 Family-Building Strategy with Parental Control Over Sex of Children 338 11.7 Mean Family Size from Order-of-Birth Distribution 344 11.8 Parity Progression and Population Increase 345 11.9 For a Given Probability of Survivors, Lower Mortality Lowers the Rate of Increase 347 CHAPTER 12 The Multi-state Model 350 12.1 Single Decrement and Increment-Decrement 352 Matrix of Inputs 12.2 The Kolmogorov Equation 355 The Multiplicative Property. Probabilities Over Long Intervals 12.3 Expected Time in the Several States 358 Fertility Expectations 12.4 Projection 361XX Contents 12.5 Transition Versus Instantaneous Probability of Moving 362 12.6 Stable Population 366 CHAPTER 13 368 Family Demography 369 13.1 Definitions Classifications. Th, 1985. gebraucht gut, 790g, 2. Auflage, Internationaler Versand, PayPal, offene Rechnung, Banküberweisung, offene Rechnung (Vorkasse vorbehalten).

Lieferung aus: Deutschland, zzgl. Versandkosten.
Von Händler/Antiquariat, Petra Gros, 56068 Koblenz.
2. Auflage 441 S. gebundene Ausgabe Das hier angebotene Buch stammt aus einer teilaufgelösten wissenschaftlichen Bibliothek und trägt die entsprechenden Kennzeichnungen (Rückenschild, Instituts-Stempel...). Der Buchzustand ist ansonsten ordentlich und dem Alter entsprechend gut. CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 Introduction: Population Without Age 1 Definitions of Rate of Increase 1.1 Doubling Time and Half-life 3 The Period of Compounding. Application to Human History. Logarithms to Various Bases. Prospective Possible Doublings 1.2 One-Sex Versus Two-Sex Models: Descendants of the Pilgrim Fathers 9 1.3 How Many People Have Lived on the Earth? 12 1.4 A Mixture of Populations Having Different Rates of Increase 14 An Arithmetic Example for Two Subpopulations 1.5 Rate of Increase Changing Over Time 18 Special Cases of Changing Rates 1.6 Logistic Increase and Explosion 21 1.7 The Stalled Demographic Transition 23 1.8 Differential Fertility Due to the Demographic Transition 25 1.9 Matrices and Graphs in Demography 27 A Two-Subgroup Model. Irreducibility or Connectivity. Primitivity. Application to Birth and Death CHAPTER 2 The Life Table 34 2.1 Definition of Life Table Functions 34 Mortality the Same for All Ages 2.2 Life Tables Based on Data 36 Assuming Constant Probability of Dying Within the Age Interval. The Basic Equation and a Conventional Solution. A Precise Life Table xiii http://d-nb.info/860727513"iv Contents Without Iteration or Graduation. Greville and Reed-Merrell Methods Derived as Special Cases. Bounds on Error 2.3 Further Small Corrections 45 Measure of Exposure 2.4 Period and Cohort Tables 46 2.5 Financial Calculations 47 Single-Payment Annuity and Insurance. Annual Premiums and Reserves 2.6 Cause-Deleted Tables and Multiple Decrement 48 Dependence of Causes of Death. Method of Calculation. Multiple Decrement 2.7 The Life Table as a Unifying Technique in Demography 52 CHAPTER 3 Mortality Comparisons; The Male-Female Ratio 54 Variation by Age in the Sex Ratio of Mortality 3.1 The Multiplicity of Index Numbers 55 Weighted Index of Male to Female Mortality. Aggregative Indices Versus Averages of Relatives 3.2 Should We Index Death Rates or Survivorships? 60 3.3 Effect on e of Change in fj.(x) 62 0 A Proportional Difference Uniform at All Ages. Observed Values of the Constant H. An Aspect of the Index Number Problem. Fractional Change in Mortality Due to a Given Cause. Comparison of H(l) with 2o l) — &o- Interrelations of the Several Causes. 3.4 Everybody Dies Prematurely 72 Average Expectation of Life. Oldest Person in Group. Effect of a Health Improvement CHAPTER 4 Fixed Regime of Mortality and Fertility: The Uses of Stable Theory 77 4.1 Stable Theory 78 A Discrete Form 4.2 Population Growth Estimated from One Census 81 Effect of Choice of Model Life Table. Theory for the Error Arising from Use of an Improper Life Table 4.3 Mean Age in the Stable Population 87 Demographic Calculations Need Not Start at Age Zero. Use of Popula- tion Mean AgeContents xv 4.4 Rate of Increase Estimated from the Fraction Under Age 25 92 4.5 Birth Rate as Well as Rate of Increase Estimated for a Stable Population 94 4.6 Comparison of the Several Ways of Using the Age Distribution 96 Incomplete Population and Deaths. Estimates from Two Censuses 4.7 Sensitivity Analysis 103 Mean Age as a Function of Rate of Increase. Pension Cost. Fraction of Old People 4.8 The Degree to Which Promotion Within Organizations Depends on Population Increase 107 A Simplification. The Chain Letter Principle CHAPTER 5 Birth and the Intrinsic Rate of Natural Increase 112 5.1 The Characteristic Equation 113 Why Stress the Female Model? An Iterative Method for Calculating r. The Intrinsic Rate for Various Kinds of Data. Male Period Intrinsic Rates. Cohort Intrinsic Rate. Intrinsic Rate for One Family 5.2 A Variant Form of the Characteristic Equation 118 5.3 Perturbation Analysis of the Intrinsic Rate 120 How the Intrinsic Rate Varies with the Moments. Change in Births at One Age 5.4 Arbitrary Pattern of Birth Rate Decline 123 Effect of Small Arbitrary Change in Birth Function. Amount of Change Needed for Drop to Bare Replacement. Effect of Uniformly Lower Death Rates 5.5 Drop in Births Required to Offset a Drop in Deaths 126 The Drop in Fertility That Would Offset a Drop in Mortality to Zero. Diseases of Infancy Versus Heart Disease: Their Effects on Population Increase 5.6 Moments of the Dying Population in Terms of Those of the Living, and Conversely 129 Expectation of Life as a Function of Crude Birth and Death Rates 5.7 Four Mathematical Formulations of the Basic Equation of Population 133 The Lotka Integral Equation. The Leslie Matrix. The Difference Equation. The von Foerster Partial Differential Equations. The Four Presentationsxvi Contents CHAPTER 6 Reproductive Value, with Applications to Migration, Contraception, and Zero Population Growth 142 6.1 Concept of Reproductive Value 143 Reproductive Value from the Lotka Integral Equation. One Woman Aged x. Stable Age Distribution. Arbitrary Age Distribution. Numerical Calculation 6.2 Ultimate Effect of Small Out-migration Occurring in a Given Year 149 6.3 Effect of Continuing Birth Control and Sterilization 150 6.4 Large Change in Regime 152 6.5 Emigration as a Policy Applied Year After Year 153 6.6 The Momentum of Population Growth 155 6.7 Eliminating Heart Disease Would Make Very Little Difference to Population Increase, Whereas Eradication of Malaria Makes a Great Deal of Difference 158 Appendix: Reproductive Value as a Contribution to Future Births _ 159 CHAPTER 7 Understanding Population Characteristics 162 7.1 Accounting for Age Distribution 163 Young and Old Populations. Age Distribution as a Function of Rate of Increase. Neutral and Nonneutral Change in Mortality. Accounting for Observed Ages. Are Birth or Death Rates the Major Influence on Age Distribution? 7.2 Why There Are More Women Than Men at Older Ages in Modern Populations 170 7.3 The Stable Equivalent 172 Population Projection and the Stable Approximation Thereto. Applica- tion of the Stable Equivalent Q. Relation Between Q and Reproductive Value V. A More General Stable Equivalent 7.4 Age at Marriage 178 A Sum of Random Intervals Model. Small Marriage Circles. How Many Households Are Implied by Birth, Death, and Marriage Rates? Intrinsic Rates of Natural Increase: Age, Parity, and Nuptiality. The Life Cycle. Married and Divorced. The Current Divorce-Marriage Ratio 7.5 The Foreign-born and Internal Migrants 190 A Matrix Analysis. Migration and AgeContents xvii 7.6 Human Stocks and Flows 192 7.7 The Demography of Organizations 197 Loss of Power. Organizing Political Success. Economic Hierarchies CHAPTER 8 Projection and Forecasting 201 8.1 Forecasting: Both Unavoidable and Impossible. Past Data, Present Action, and Future Conditions of Payoff 201 Heavy Stakes on Simultaneous Lotteries. Projection as Distinct from Prediction 8.2 The Technique of Projection 205 Survivorship. Reproduction. Extension to All Ages and Both Sexes. Age Versus Other Variables. Projection in a Heterogeneous Population 8.3 Applications of Projection 212 Population Dynamics with One Cause of Death Eliminated. Effect of Immediate Drop to Replacement Fertility 8.4 The Search for Constancies 217 Relational Methods. Mortality. Are Longitudinal Relations Demon- strated by Cross-Sectional Data? 8.5 Features of Forecasting and Forecasting Error 221 Extrapolation Versus Mechanism. Shape of the Projection Fan 8.6 The Components of Forecasting Error ex ante 227 The Length of the Experience Base 8.7 Ex post Evaluation of Point Estimates 230 Future Percentage Increase 8.8 A Division of Labor 233 The Loss Function Permits a Three-Way Division of Labor 8.9 Interval Estimates as Currently Provided 235 Official Agencies Have Backed into Confidence Intervals CHAPTER 9 Some Types of Instability 237 9.1 Absolute Change in Mortality the Same at All Ages 237 Inferring the Increase in Births. Increase in Person-Years in Cohort 9.2 Proportional Change in Mortality 240 Rate of Increase of Births. Change of l . Increase in Total Cohort 0 Population. Increase of Persons of Arbitrary Age 9.3 Changing Birth Rates 243 9.4 Announced Period Birth Rate Too High 245xviii Contents 9.5 Backward Population Projection 250 Application 9.6 The Time to Stability 255 The Criterion of Convergence. Use of the Characteristic Equation. An Exact Ratio of Partial Derivatives and an Approximation Thereto. Allowance for Different Ranges of Variance and Skewness Among Observed Populations. Time to Convergence. Theoretical Versus Empirical Relations 9.7 Retirement Pensions: Pay-as-You-Go Versus Actuarial Reserves 262 9.8 The Demography of Educational Organizations Under Changing Age Distributions 265 9.9 Two Levels of Students and Teachers 267 9.10 Mobility in an Unstable Population 269 9.11 The Easterlin Effect 270 CHAPTER 10 The Demographic Theory of Kinship 273 10.1 Probability of Living Ancestors 275 Counting Method. Probability Method. Living Mother by the Counting Method. Living Mother by Conditional Probability. Probability of Living Grandmother. Numerical Examples. Stable Results Versus a Kinship Census. An Approximation 10.2 Descendants 282 10.3 Sisters and Aunts 285 A Paradox: The Average Girl Seems to Have Too Many Sisters. Age Incidence of Childbearing Conditional on Birth of One Child. Aunts 10.4 Mean and Variance of Ages 289 Ascertainment 10.5 Generalization to Changing Rates of Birth and Death 291 10.6 Sensitivity Analysis 292 Decomposition of M (a), the Probability of a Living Mother. Other x Progenitors. Effect of Birth Pattern on Living Progenitors. Comparison of Effect of Birth and Death Rates 10.7 The Inverse Problem: Deriving Rates from Genealogies 299 10.8 Incest Taboo and Rate of Increase 300 10.9 The Bias Imposed by Age Difference on Cross-Cousin Marriage 301Contents xix CHAPTER 11 Microdemography 303 11.1 Births Averted by Contraception 303 Abstention. Births Averted—the Causal Inference. Marginal Effect. Dropping the Contraceptive. Why 1000 Abortions Do Not Prevent 1000 Births in a Population. Abortion as a Backup to Contraception 11.2 Measurement of Fertility and Fecundity 315 Probability of Conception by Days of the Month. Mean Fecundity from Surveys. Homogeneous Populations. A Heterogeneous Popula- tion with Fecundity Constant for Each Woman. The Pearl Index Is the Harmonic Mean of the Distribution. The Gini Fertility Measure. Comparison of Pearl and Gini Estimates. Excursus on Averages. Graduation Uses Information Efficiently. Mean and Variance Simul- taneously Estimated by Graduation. Life Table Methods for Fertility. Relation of Micro to Population Replacement. How Surer Contracep- tion Reduces the Interval Between Births 11.3 Why Three-Child Families Constitute a Population Explosion, Whereas Two-Child Families Would Lead to the Extinction of Mankind 330 11.4 A Family-Building Strategy to Avoid Extinction 332 11.5 Sex Preference and the Birth Rate 335 An Approximation to the Harmonic Mean 11.6 Family-Building Strategy with Parental Control Over Sex of Children 338 11.7 Mean Family Size from Order-of-Birth Distribution 344 11.8 Parity Progression and Population Increase 345 11.9 For a Given Probability of Survivors, Lower Mortality Lowers the Rate of Increase 347 CHAPTER 12 The Multi-state Model 350 12.1 Single Decrement and Increment-Decrement 352 Matrix of Inputs 12.2 The Kolmogorov Equation 355 The Multiplicative Property. Probabilities Over Long Intervals 12.3 Expected Time in the Several States 358 Fertility Expectations 12.4 Projection 361XX Contents 12.5 Transition Versus Instantaneous Probability of Moving 362 12.6 Stable Population 366 CHAPTER 13 368 Family Demography 369 13.1 Definitions Classifications. Theory and Statistical Compilation 371 13.2 Kinship of Inference from Kin Counts. Widowhood. Theoretical Number Families in the Population. Decomposing Widowhood 376 13.3 The Life Cycle Shape of Family Tree. Headship 379 13.4 Household Size Distribution Separate Living 381 13.5 Economic, Political and Biological Theory 13.6 Family Policy 383 CHAPTER 14 Heterogeneity and Selection in Population Analysis 385 Historical Note 14.1 Conditioning and the Interpretation of Statistical Data 387 Simpson's Paradox 14.2 Heterogeneity and Selection 390 14.3 Application to Mortality 391 A Mixture of Populations Having Different Rates of Increase. Two Classes of Frailty. Numerical Effect on Mortality. Frailty Varying Over Time 14.4 Continuous Distribution of Increase and of Frailty 395 Continuous Distribution of Frailty 14.5 Experimentation 399 CHAPTER 15 Epilogue: How Do We Know the Facts of Demography? 400 15.1 Growing Populations Have Smaller Proportions of Old People 402 Older Population as a Function of Rate of Increase When All Else Is Constant. Are Births or Deaths Decisive? 15.2 Promotion in Organizations 407 15.3 No Model, No Understanding 409Contents xxi 15.4 Too Many Models 410 15.5 Effect of Development on Population Increase 411 15.6 Effect of Population Growth on Development 412 15.7 How Nature Covers Her Tracks 414 The Oblique Use of Data to Challenge Theory 15.8 The Psychology of Research 417 Bibliography 419 Index 435 Versand D: 2,95 EUR Mathematik, Soziologie, Gesellschaft.

Lieferung aus: Deutschland, zzgl. Versandkosten.
Von Händler/Antiquariat, Petra Gros, 56070 Koblenz.
2. Auflage 441 S. gebundene Ausgabe Das hier angebotene Buch stammt aus einer teilaufgelösten wissenschaftlichen Bibliothek und trägt die entsprechenden Kennzeichnungen (Rückenschild, Instituts-Stempel...). Der Buchzustand ist ansonsten ordentlich und dem Alter entsprechend gut. CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 Introduction: Population Without Age 1 Definitions of Rate of Increase 1.1 Doubling Time and Half-life 3 The Period of Compounding. Application to Human History. Logarithms to Various Bases. Prospective Possible Doublings 1.2 One-Sex Versus Two-Sex Models: Descendants of the Pilgrim Fathers 9 1.3 How Many People Have Lived on the Earth? 12 1.4 A Mixture of Populations Having Different Rates of Increase 14 An Arithmetic Example for Two Subpopulations 1.5 Rate of Increase Changing Over Time 18 Special Cases of Changing Rates 1.6 Logistic Increase and Explosion 21 1.7 The Stalled Demographic Transition 23 1.8 Differential Fertility Due to the Demographic Transition 25 1.9 Matrices and Graphs in Demography 27 A Two-Subgroup Model. Irreducibility or Connectivity. Primitivity. Application to Birth and Death CHAPTER 2 The Life Table 34 2.1 Definition of Life Table Functions 34 Mortality the Same for All Ages 2.2 Life Tables Based on Data 36 Assuming Constant Probability of Dying Within the Age Interval. The Basic Equation and a Conventional Solution. A Precise Life Table xiii http://d-nb.info/860727513"iv Contents Without Iteration or Graduation. Greville and Reed-Merrell Methods Derived as Special Cases. Bounds on Error 2.3 Further Small Corrections 45 Measure of Exposure 2.4 Period and Cohort Tables 46 2.5 Financial Calculations 47 Single-Payment Annuity and Insurance. Annual Premiums and Reserves 2.6 Cause-Deleted Tables and Multiple Decrement 48 Dependence of Causes of Death. Method of Calculation. Multiple Decrement 2.7 The Life Table as a Unifying Technique in Demography 52 CHAPTER 3 Mortality Comparisons; The Male-Female Ratio 54 Variation by Age in the Sex Ratio of Mortality 3.1 The Multiplicity of Index Numbers 55 Weighted Index of Male to Female Mortality. Aggregative Indices Versus Averages of Relatives 3.2 Should We Index Death Rates or Survivorships? 60 3.3 Effect on e of Change in fj.(x) 62 0 A Proportional Difference Uniform at All Ages. Observed Values of the Constant H. An Aspect of the Index Number Problem. Fractional Change in Mortality Due to a Given Cause. Comparison of H(l) with 2o l) — &o- Interrelations of the Several Causes. 3.4 Everybody Dies Prematurely 72 Average Expectation of Life. Oldest Person in Group. Effect of a Health Improvement CHAPTER 4 Fixed Regime of Mortality and Fertility: The Uses of Stable Theory 77 4.1 Stable Theory 78 A Discrete Form 4.2 Population Growth Estimated from One Census 81 Effect of Choice of Model Life Table. Theory for the Error Arising from Use of an Improper Life Table 4.3 Mean Age in the Stable Population 87 Demographic Calculations Need Not Start at Age Zero. Use of Popula- tion Mean AgeContents xv 4.4 Rate of Increase Estimated from the Fraction Under Age 25 92 4.5 Birth Rate as Well as Rate of Increase Estimated for a Stable Population 94 4.6 Comparison of the Several Ways of Using the Age Distribution 96 Incomplete Population and Deaths. Estimates from Two Censuses 4.7 Sensitivity Analysis 103 Mean Age as a Function of Rate of Increase. Pension Cost. Fraction of Old People 4.8 The Degree to Which Promotion Within Organizations Depends on Population Increase 107 A Simplification. The Chain Letter Principle CHAPTER 5 Birth and the Intrinsic Rate of Natural Increase 112 5.1 The Characteristic Equation 113 Why Stress the Female Model? An Iterative Method for Calculating r. The Intrinsic Rate for Various Kinds of Data. Male Period Intrinsic Rates. Cohort Intrinsic Rate. Intrinsic Rate for One Family 5.2 A Variant Form of the Characteristic Equation 118 5.3 Perturbation Analysis of the Intrinsic Rate 120 How the Intrinsic Rate Varies with the Moments. Change in Births at One Age 5.4 Arbitrary Pattern of Birth Rate Decline 123 Effect of Small Arbitrary Change in Birth Function. Amount of Change Needed for Drop to Bare Replacement. Effect of Uniformly Lower Death Rates 5.5 Drop in Births Required to Offset a Drop in Deaths 126 The Drop in Fertility That Would Offset a Drop in Mortality to Zero. Diseases of Infancy Versus Heart Disease: Their Effects on Population Increase 5.6 Moments of the Dying Population in Terms of Those of the Living, and Conversely 129 Expectation of Life as a Function of Crude Birth and Death Rates 5.7 Four Mathematical Formulations of the Basic Equation of Population 133 The Lotka Integral Equation. The Leslie Matrix. The Difference Equation. The von Foerster Partial Differential Equations. The Four Presentationsxvi Contents CHAPTER 6 Reproductive Value, with Applications to Migration, Contraception, and Zero Population Growth 142 6.1 Concept of Reproductive Value 143 Reproductive Value from the Lotka Integral Equation. One Woman Aged x. Stable Age Distribution. Arbitrary Age Distribution. Numerical Calculation 6.2 Ultimate Effect of Small Out-migration Occurring in a Given Year 149 6.3 Effect of Continuing Birth Control and Sterilization 150 6.4 Large Change in Regime 152 6.5 Emigration as a Policy Applied Year After Year 153 6.6 The Momentum of Population Growth 155 6.7 Eliminating Heart Disease Would Make Very Little Difference to Population Increase, Whereas Eradication of Malaria Makes a Great Deal of Difference 158 Appendix: Reproductive Value as a Contribution to Future Births _ 159 CHAPTER 7 Understanding Population Characteristics 162 7.1 Accounting for Age Distribution 163 Young and Old Populations. Age Distribution as a Function of Rate of Increase. Neutral and Nonneutral Change in Mortality. Accounting for Observed Ages. Are Birth or Death Rates the Major Influence on Age Distribution? 7.2 Why There Are More Women Than Men at Older Ages in Modern Populations 170 7.3 The Stable Equivalent 172 Population Projection and the Stable Approximation Thereto. Applica- tion of the Stable Equivalent Q. Relation Between Q and Reproductive Value V. A More General Stable Equivalent 7.4 Age at Marriage 178 A Sum of Random Intervals Model. Small Marriage Circles. How Many Households Are Implied by Birth, Death, and Marriage Rates? Intrinsic Rates of Natural Increase: Age, Parity, and Nuptiality. The Life Cycle. Married and Divorced. The Current Divorce-Marriage Ratio 7.5 The Foreign-born and Internal Migrants 190 A Matrix Analysis. Migration and AgeContents xvii 7.6 Human Stocks and Flows 192 7.7 The Demography of Organizations 197 Loss of Power. Organizing Political Success. Economic Hierarchies CHAPTER 8 Projection and Forecasting 201 8.1 Forecasting: Both Unavoidable and Impossible. Past Data, Present Action, and Future Conditions of Payoff 201 Heavy Stakes on Simultaneous Lotteries. Projection as Distinct from Prediction 8.2 The Technique of Projection 205 Survivorship. Reproduction. Extension to All Ages and Both Sexes. Age Versus Other Variables. Projection in a Heterogeneous Population 8.3 Applications of Projection 212 Population Dynamics with One Cause of Death Eliminated. Effect of Immediate Drop to Replacement Fertility 8.4 The Search for Constancies 217 Relational Methods. Mortality. Are Longitudinal Relations Demon- strated by Cross-Sectional Data? 8.5 Features of Forecasting and Forecasting Error 221 Extrapolation Versus Mechanism. Shape of the Projection Fan 8.6 The Components of Forecasting Error ex ante 227 The Length of the Experience Base 8.7 Ex post Evaluation of Point Estimates 230 Future Percentage Increase 8.8 A Division of Labor 233 The Loss Function Permits a Three-Way Division of Labor 8.9 Interval Estimates as Currently Provided 235 Official Agencies Have Backed into Confidence Intervals CHAPTER 9 Some Types of Instability 237 9.1 Absolute Change in Mortality the Same at All Ages 237 Inferring the Increase in Births. Increase in Person-Years in Cohort 9.2 Proportional Change in Mortality 240 Rate of Increase of Births. Change of l . Increase in Total Cohort 0 Population. Increase of Persons of Arbitrary Age 9.3 Changing Birth Rates 243 9.4 Announced Period Birth Rate Too High 245xviii Contents 9.5 Backward Population Projection 250 Application 9.6 The Time to Stability 255 The Criterion of Convergence. Use of the Characteristic Equation. An Exact Ratio of Partial Derivatives and an Approximation Thereto. Allowance for Different Ranges of Variance and Skewness Among Observed Populations. Time to Convergence. Theoretical Versus Empirical Relations 9.7 Retirement Pensions: Pay-as-You-Go Versus Actuarial Reserves 262 9.8 The Demography of Educational Organizations Under Changing Age Distributions 265 9.9 Two Levels of Students and Teachers 267 9.10 Mobility in an Unstable Population 269 9.11 The Easterlin Effect 270 CHAPTER 10 The Demographic Theory of Kinship 273 10.1 Probability of Living Ancestors 275 Counting Method. Probability Method. Living Mother by the Counting Method. Living Mother by Conditional Probability. Probability of Living Grandmother. Numerical Examples. Stable Results Versus a Kinship Census. An Approximation 10.2 Descendants 282 10.3 Sisters and Aunts 285 A Paradox: The Average Girl Seems to Have Too Many Sisters. Age Incidence of Childbearing Conditional on Birth of One Child. Aunts 10.4 Mean and Variance of Ages 289 Ascertainment 10.5 Generalization to Changing Rates of Birth and Death 291 10.6 Sensitivity Analysis 292 Decomposition of M (a), the Probability of a Living Mother. Other x Progenitors. Effect of Birth Pattern on Living Progenitors. Comparison of Effect of Birth and Death Rates 10.7 The Inverse Problem: Deriving Rates from Genealogies 299 10.8 Incest Taboo and Rate of Increase 300 10.9 The Bias Imposed by Age Difference on Cross-Cousin Marriage 301Contents xix CHAPTER 11 Microdemography 303 11.1 Births Averted by Contraception 303 Abstention. Births Averted—the Causal Inference. Marginal Effect. Dropping the Contraceptive. Why 1000 Abortions Do Not Prevent 1000 Births in a Population. Abortion as a Backup to Contraception 11.2 Measurement of Fertility and Fecundity 315 Probability of Conception by Days of the Month. Mean Fecundity from Surveys. Homogeneous Populations. A Heterogeneous Popula- tion with Fecundity Constant for Each Woman. The Pearl Index Is the Harmonic Mean of the Distribution. The Gini Fertility Measure. Comparison of Pearl and Gini Estimates. Excursus on Averages. Graduation Uses Information Efficiently. Mean and Variance Simul- taneously Estimated by Graduation. Life Table Methods for Fertility. Relation of Micro to Population Replacement. How Surer Contracep- tion Reduces the Interval Between Births 11.3 Why Three-Child Families Constitute a Population Explosion, Whereas Two-Child Families Would Lead to the Extinction of Mankind 330 11.4 A Family-Building Strategy to Avoid Extinction 332 11.5 Sex Preference and the Birth Rate 335 An Approximation to the Harmonic Mean 11.6 Family-Building Strategy with Parental Control Over Sex of Children 338 11.7 Mean Family Size from Order-of-Birth Distribution 344 11.8 Parity Progression and Population Increase 345 11.9 For a Given Probability of Survivors, Lower Mortality Lowers the Rate of Increase 347 CHAPTER 12 The Multi-state Model 350 12.1 Single Decrement and Increment-Decrement 352 Matrix of Inputs 12.2 The Kolmogorov Equation 355 The Multiplicative Property. Probabilities Over Long Intervals 12.3 Expected Time in the Several States 358 Fertility Expectations 12.4 Projection 361XX Contents 12.5 Transition Versus Instantaneous Probability of Moving 362 12.6 Stable Population 366 CHAPTER 13 368 Family Demography 369 13.1 Definitions Classifications. Theory and Statistical Compilation 371 13.2 Kinship of Inference from Kin Counts. Widowhood. Theoretical Number Families in the Population. Decomposing Widowhood 376 13.3 The Life Cycle Shape of Family Tree. Headship 379 13.4 Household Size Distribution Separate Living 381 13.5 Economic, Political and Biological Theory 13.6 Family Policy 383 CHAPTER 14 Heterogeneity and Selection in Population Analysis 385 Historical Note 14.1 Conditioning and the Interpretation of Statistical Data 387 Simpson's Paradox 14.2 Heterogeneity and Selection 390 14.3 Application to Mortality 391 A Mixture of Populations Having Different Rates of Increase. Two Classes of Frailty. Numerical Effect on Mortality. Frailty Varying Over Time 14.4 Continuous Distribution of Increase and of Frailty 395 Continuous Distribution of Frailty 14.5 Experimentation 399 CHAPTER 15 Epilogue: How Do We Know the Facts of Demography? 400 15.1 Growing Populations Have Smaller Proportions of Old People 402 Older Population as a Function of Rate of Increase When All Else Is Constant. Are Births or Deaths Decisive? 15.2 Promotion in Organizations 407 15.3 No Model, No Understanding 409Contents xxi 15.4 Too Many Models 410 15.5 Effect of Development on Population Increase 411 15.6 Effect of Population Growth on Development 412 15.7 How Nature Covers Her Tracks 414 The Oblique Use of Data to Challenge Theory 15.8 The Psychology of Research 417 Bibliography 419 Index 435 Versand D: 2,95 EUR Mathematik, Soziologie, Gesellschaft.

Petra Gros, [3076014].
441 S. gebundene AusgabeDas hier angebotene Buch stammt aus einer teilaufgelösten wissenschaftlichen Bibliothek und trägt die entsprechenden Kennzeichnungen (Rückenschild, Instituts-Stempel...). Der Buchzustand ist ansonsten ordentlich und dem Alter entsprechend gut. CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 Introduction: Population Without Age 1 Definitions of Rate of Increase 1.1 Doubling Time and Half-life 3 The Period of Compounding. Application to Human History. Logarithms to Various Bases. Prospective Possible Doublings 1.2 One-*** Versus Two-*** Models: Descendants of the Pilgrim Fathers 9 1.3 How Many People Have Lived on the Earth? 12 1.4 A Mixture of Populations Having Different Rates of Increase 14 An Arithmetic Example for Two Subpopulations 1.5 Rate of Increase Changing Over Time 18 Special Cases of Changing Rates 1.6 Logistic Increase and Explosion 21 1.7 The Stalled Demographic Transition 23 1.8 Differential Fertility Due to the Demographic Transition 25 1.9 Matrices and Graphs in Demography 27 A Two-Subgroup Model. Irreducibility or Connectivity. Primitivity. Application to Birth and Death CHAPTER 2 The Life Table 34 2.1 Definition of Life Table Functions 34 Mortality the Same for All Ages 2.2 Life Tables Based on Data 36 Assuming Constant Probability of Dying Within the Age Interval. The Basic Equation and a Conventional Solution. A Precise Life Table xiii http://d-nb.info/860727513"iv Contents Without Iteration or Graduation. Greville and Reed-Merrell Methods Derived as Special Cases. Bounds on Error 2.3 Further Small Corrections 45 Measure of Exposure 2.4 Period and Cohort Tables 46 2.5 Financial Calculations 47 Single-Payment Annuity and Insurance. Annual Premiums and Reserves 2.6 Cause-Deleted Tables and Multiple Decrement 48 Dependence of Causes of Death. Method of Calculation. Multiple Decrement 2.7 The Life Table as a Unifying Technique in Demography 52 CHAPTER 3 Mortality Comparisons The Male-Female Ratio 54 Variation by Age in the *** Ratio of Mortality 3.1 The Multiplicity of Index Numbers 55 Weighted Index of Male to Female Mortality. Aggregative Indices Versus Averages of Relatives 3.2 Should We Index Death Rates or Survivorships? 60 3.3 Effect on e of Change in fj.(x) 62 0 A Proportional Difference Uniform at All Ages. Observed Values of the Constant H. An Aspect of the Index Number Problem. Fractional Change in Mortality Due to a Given Cause. Comparison of H(l) with 2o l) &o- Interrelations of the Several Causes. 3.4 Everybody Dies Prematurely 72 Average Expectation of Life. Oldest Person in Group. Effect of a Health Improvement CHAPTER 4 Fixed Regime of Mortality and Fertility: The Uses of Stable Theory 77 4.1 Stable Theory 78 A Discrete Form 4.2 Population Growth Estimated from One Census 81 Effect of Choice of Model Life Table. Theory for the Error Arising from Use of an Improper Life Table 4.3 Mean Age in the Stable Population 87 Demographic Calculations Need Not Start at Age Zero. Use of Popula- tion Mean AgeContents xv 4.4 Rate of Increase Estimated from the Fraction Under Age 25 92 4.5 Birth Rate as Well as Rate of Increase Estimated for a Stable Population 94 4.6 Comparison of the Several Ways of Using the Age Distribution 96 Incomplete Population and Deaths. Estimates from Two Censuses 4.7 Sensitivity Analysis 103 Mean Age as a Function of Rate of Increase. Pension Cost. Fraction of Old People 4.8 The Degree to Which Promotion Within Organizations Depends on Population Increase 107 A Simplification. The Chain Letter Principle CHAPTER 5 Birth and the Intrinsic Rate of Natural Increase 112 5.1 The Characteristic Equation 113 Why Stress the Female Model? An Iterative Method for Calculating r. The Intrinsic Rate for Various Kinds of Data. Male Period Intrinsic Rates. Cohort Intrinsic Rate. Intrinsic Rate for One Family 5.2 A Variant Form of the Characteristic Equation 118 5.3 Perturbation Analysis of the Intrinsic Rate 120 How the Intrinsic Rate Varies with the Moments. Change in Births at One Age 5.4 Arbitrary Pattern of Birth Rate Decline 123 Effect of Small Arbitrary Change in Birth Function. Amount of Change Needed for Drop to Bare Replacement. Effect of Uniformly Lower Death Rates 5.5 Drop in Births Required to Offset a Drop in Deaths 126 The Drop in Fertility That Would Offset a Drop in Mortality to Zero. Diseases of Infancy Versus Heart Disease: Their Effects on Population Increase 5.6 Moments of the Dying Population in Terms of Those of the Living, and Conversely 129 Expectation of Life as a Function of Crude Birth and Death Rates 5.7 Four Mathematical Formulations of the Basic Equation of Population 133 The Lotka Integral Equation. The Leslie Matrix. The Difference Equation. The von Foerster Partial Differential Equations. The Four Presentationsxvi Contents CHAPTER 6 Reproductive Value, with Applications to Migration, Contraception, and Zero Population Growth 142 6.1 Concept of Reproductive Value 143 Reproductive Value from the Lotka Integral Equation. One Woman Aged x. Stable Age Distribution. Arbitrary Age Distribution. Numerical Calculation 6.2 Ultimate Effect of Small Out-migration Occurring in a Given Year 149 6.3 Effect of Continuing Birth Control and Sterilization 150 6.4 Large Change in Regime 152 6.5 Emigration as a Policy Applied Year After Year 153 6.6 The Momentum of Population Growth 155 6.7 Eliminating Heart Disease Would Make Very Little Difference to Population Increase, Whereas Eradication of Malaria Makes a Great Deal of Difference 158 Appendix: Reproductive Value as a Contribution to Future Births _ 159 CHAPTER 7 Understanding Population Characteristics 162 7.1 Accounting for Age Distribution 163 Young and Old Populations. Age Distribution as a Function of Rate of Increase. Neutral and Nonneutral Change in Mortality. Accounting for Observed Ages. Are Birth or Death Rates the Major Influence on Age Distribution? 7.2 Why There Are More Women Than Men at Older Ages in Modern Populations 170 7.3 The Stable Equivalent 172 Population Projection and the Stable Approximation Thereto. Applica- tion of the Stable Equivalent Q. Relation Between Q and Reproductive Value V. A More General Stable Equivalent 7.4 Age at Marriage 178 A Sum of Random Intervals Model. Small Marriage Circles. How Many Households Are Implied by Birth, Death, and Marriage Rates? Intrinsic Rates of Natural Increase: Age, Parity, and Nuptiality. The Life Cycle. Married and Divorced. The Current Divorce-Marriage Ratio 7.5 The Foreign-born and Internal Migrants 190 A Matrix Analysis. Migration and AgeContents xvii 7.6 Human Stocks and Flows 192 7.7 The Demography of Organizations 197 Loss of Power. Organizing Political Success. Economic Hierarchies CHAPTER 8 Projection and Forecasting 201 8.1 Forecasting: Both Unavoidable and Impossible. Past Data, Present Action, and Future Conditions of Payoff 201 Heavy Stakes on Simultaneous Lotteries. Projection as Distinct from Prediction 8.2 The Technique of Projection 205 Survivorship. Reproduction. Extension to All Ages and Both ***es. Age Versus Other Variables. Projection in a Heterogeneous Population 8.3 Applications of Projection 212 Population Dynamics with One Cause of Death Eliminated. Effect of Immediate Drop to Replacement Fertility 8.4 The Search for Constancies 217 Relational Methods. Mortality. Are Longitudinal Relations Demon- strated by Cross-Sectional Data? 8.5 Features of Forecasting and Forecasting Error 221 Extrapolation Versus Mechanism. Shape of the Projection Fan 8.6 The Components of Forecasting Error ex ante 227 The Length of the Experience Base 8.7 Ex post Evaluation of Point Estimates 230 Future Percentage Increase 8.8 A Division of Labor 233 The Loss Function Permits a Three-Way Division of Labor 8.9 Interval Estimates as Currently Provided 235 Official Agencies Have Backed into Confidence Intervals CHAPTER 9 Some Types of Instability 237 9.1 Absolute Change in Mortality the Same at All Ages 237 Inferring the Increase in Births. Increase in Person-Years in Cohort 9.2 Proportional Change in Mortality 240 Rate of Increase of Births. Change of l . Increase in Total Cohort 0 Population. Increase of Persons of Arbitrary Age 9.3 Changing Birth Rates 243 9.4 Announced Period Birth Rate Too High 245xviii Contents 9.5 Backward Population Projection 250 Application 9.6 The Time to Stability 255 The Criterion of Convergence. Use of the Characteristic Equation. An Exact Ratio of Partial Derivatives and an Approximation Thereto. Allowance for Different Ranges of Variance and Skewness Among Observed Populations. Time to Convergence. Theoretical Versus Empirical Relations 9.7 Retirement Pensions: Pay-as-You-Go Versus Actuarial Reserves 262 9.8 The Demography of Educational Organizations Under Changing Age Distributions 265 9.9 Two Levels of Students and Teachers 267 9.10 Mobility in an Unstable Population 269 9.11 The Easterlin Effect 270 CHAPTER 10 The Demographic Theory of Kinship 273 10.1 Probability of Living Ancestors 275 Counting Method. Probability Method. Living Mother by the Counting Method. Living Mother by Conditional Probability. Probability of Living Grandmother. Numerical Examples. Stable Results Versus a Kinship Census. An Approximation 10.2 Descendants 282 10.3 Sisters and Aunts 285 A Paradox: The Average Girl Seems to Have Too Many Sisters. Age Incidence of Childbearing Conditional on Birth of One Child. Aunts 10.4 Mean and Variance of Ages 289 Ascertainment 10.5 Generalization to Changing Rates of Birth and Death 291 10.6 Sensitivity Analysis 292 Decomposition of M (a), the Probability of a Living Mother. Other x Progenitors. Effect of Birth Pattern on Living Progenitors. Comparison of Effect of Birth and Death Rates 10.7 The Inverse Problem: Deriving Rates from Genealogies 299 10.8 Incest Taboo and Rate of Increase 300 10.9 The Bias Imposed by Age Difference on Cross-Cousin Marriage 301Contents xix CHAPTER 11 Microdemography 303 11.1 Births Averted by Contraception 303 Abstention. Births Avertedthe Causal Inference. Marginal Effect. Dropping the Contraceptive. Why 1000 Abortions Do Not Prevent 1000 Births in a Population. Abortion as a Backup to Contraception 11.2 Measurement of Fertility and Fecundity 315 Probability of Conception by Days of the Month. Mean Fecundity from Surveys. Homogeneous Populations. A Heterogeneous Popula- tion with Fecundity Constant for Each Woman. The Pearl Index Is the Harmonic Mean of the Distribution. The Gini Fertility Measure. Comparison of Pearl and Gini Estimates. Excursus on Averages. Graduation Uses Information Efficiently. Mean and Variance Simul- taneously Estimated by Graduation. Life Table Methods for Fertility. Relation of Micro to Population Replacement. How Surer Contracep- tion Reduces the Interval Between Births 11.3 Why Three-Child Families Constitute a Population Explosion, Whereas Two-Child Families Would Lead to the Extinction of Mankind 330 11.4 A Family-Building Strategy to Avoid Extinction 332 11.5 *** Preference and the Birth Rate 335 An Approximation to the Harmonic Mean 11.6 Family-Building Strategy with Parental Control Over *** of Children 338 11.7 Mean Family Size from Order-of-Birth Distribution 344 11.8 Parity Progression and Population Increase 345 11.9 For a Given Probability of Survivors, Lower Mortality Lowers the Rate of Increase 347 CHAPTER 12 The Multi-state Model 350 12.1 Single Decrement and Increment-Decrement 352 Matrix of Inputs 12.2 The Kolmogorov Equation 355 The Multiplicative Property. Probabilities Over Long Intervals 12.3 Expected Time in the Several States 358 Fertility Expectations 12.4 Projection 361XX Contents 12.5 Transition Versus Instantaneous Probability of Moving 362 12.6 Stable Population 366 CHAPTER 13 368 Family Demography 369 13.1 Definitions Cla.

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Von Händler/Antiquariat, Petra Gros, 56068 Koblenz.
2. Auflage 441 S. gebundene Ausgabe Das hier angebotene Buch stammt aus einer teilaufgelösten wissenschaftlichen Bibliothek und trägt die entsprechenden Kennzeichnungen (Rückenschild, Instituts-Stempel...). Der Buchzustand ist ansonsten ordentlich und dem Alter entsprechend gut. CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 Introduction: Population Without Age 1 Definitions of Rate of Increase 1.1 Doubling Time and Half-life 3 The Period of Compounding. Application to Human History. Logarithms to Various Bases. Prospective Possible Doublings 1.2 One-*** Versus Two-*** Models: Descendants of the Pilgrim Fathers 9 1.3 How Many People Have Lived on the Earth? 12 1.4 A Mixture of Populations Having Different Rates of Increase 14 An Arithmetic Example for Two Subpopulations 1.5 Rate of Increase Changing Over Time 18 Special Cases of Changing Rates 1.6 Logistic Increase and Explosion 21 1.7 The Stalled Demographic Transition 23 1.8 Differential Fertility Due to the Demographic Transition 25 1.9 Matrices and Graphs in Demography 27 A Two-Subgroup Model. Irreducibility or Connectivity. Primitivity. Application to Birth and Death CHAPTER 2 The Life Table 34 2.1 Definition of Life Table Functions 34 Mortality the Same for All Ages 2.2 Life Tables Based on Data 36 Assuming Constant Probability of Dying Within the Age Interval. The Basic Equation and a Conventional Solution. A Precise Life Table xiii http://d-nb.info/860727513"iv Contents Without Iteration or Graduation. Greville and Reed-Merrell Methods Derived as Special Cases. Bounds on Error 2.3 Further Small Corrections 45 Measure of Exposure 2.4 Period and Cohort Tables 46 2.5 Financial Calculations 47 Single-Payment Annuity and Insurance. Annual Premiums and Reserves 2.6 Cause-Deleted Tables and Multiple Decrement 48 Dependence of Causes of Death. Method of Calculation. Multiple Decrement 2.7 The Life Table as a Unifying Technique in Demography 52 CHAPTER 3 Mortality Comparisons; The Male-Female Ratio 54 Variation by Age in the *** Ratio of Mortality 3.1 The Multiplicity of Index Numbers 55 Weighted Index of Male to Female Mortality. Aggregative Indices Versus Averages of Relatives 3.2 Should We Index Death Rates or Survivorships? 60 3.3 Effect on e of Change in fj.(x) 62 0 A Proportional Difference Uniform at All Ages. Observed Values of the Constant H. An Aspect of the Index Number Problem. Fractional Change in Mortality Due to a Given Cause. Comparison of H(l) with 2o l) — &o- Interrelations of the Several Causes. 3.4 Everybody Dies Prematurely 72 Average Expectation of Life. Oldest Person in Group. Effect of a Health Improvement CHAPTER 4 Fixed Regime of Mortality and Fertility: The Uses of Stable Theory 77 4.1 Stable Theory 78 A Discrete Form 4.2 Population Growth Estimated from One Census 81 Effect of Choice of Model Life Table. Theory for the Error Arising from Use of an Improper Life Table 4.3 Mean Age in the Stable Population 87 Demographic Calculations Need Not Start at Age Zero. Use of Popula- tion Mean AgeContents xv 4.4 Rate of Increase Estimated from the Fraction Under Age 25 92 4.5 Birth Rate as Well as Rate of Increase Estimated for a Stable Population 94 4.6 Comparison of the Several Ways of Using the Age Distribution 96 Incomplete Population and Deaths. Estimates from Two Censuses 4.7 Sensitivity Analysis 103 Mean Age as a Function of Rate of Increase. Pension Cost. Fraction of Old People 4.8 The Degree to Which Promotion Within Organizations Depends on Population Increase 107 A Simplification. The Chain Letter Principle CHAPTER 5 Birth and the Intrinsic Rate of Natural Increase 112 5.1 The Characteristic Equation 113 Why Stress the Female Model? An Iterative Method for Calculating r. The Intrinsic Rate for Various Kinds of Data. Male Period Intrinsic Rates. Cohort Intrinsic Rate. Intrinsic Rate for One Family 5.2 A Variant Form of the Characteristic Equation 118 5.3 Perturbation Analysis of the Intrinsic Rate 120 How the Intrinsic Rate Varies with the Moments. Change in Births at One Age 5.4 Arbitrary Pattern of Birth Rate Decline 123 Effect of Small Arbitrary Change in Birth Function. Amount of Change Needed for Drop to Bare Replacement. Effect of Uniformly Lower Death Rates 5.5 Drop in Births Required to Offset a Drop in Deaths 126 The Drop in Fertility That Would Offset a Drop in Mortality to Zero. Diseases of Infancy Versus Heart Disease: Their Effects on Population Increase 5.6 Moments of the Dying Population in Terms of Those of the Living, and Conversely 129 Expectation of Life as a Function of Crude Birth and Death Rates 5.7 Four Mathematical Formulations of the Basic Equation of Population 133 The Lotka Integral Equation. The Leslie Matrix. The Difference Equation. The von Foerster Partial Differential Equations. The Four Presentationsxvi Contents CHAPTER 6 Reproductive Value, with Applications to Migration, Contraception, and Zero Population Growth 142 6.1 Concept of Reproductive Value 143 Reproductive Value from the Lotka Integral Equation. One Woman Aged x. Stable Age Distribution. Arbitrary Age Distribution. Numerical Calculation 6.2 Ultimate Effect of Small Out-migration Occurring in a Given Year 149 6.3 Effect of Continuing Birth Control and Sterilization 150 6.4 Large Change in Regime 152 6.5 Emigration as a Policy Applied Year After Year 153 6.6 The Momentum of Population Growth 155 6.7 Eliminating Heart Disease Would Make Very Little Difference to Population Increase, Whereas Eradication of Malaria Makes a Great Deal of Difference 158 Appendix: Reproductive Value as a Contribution to Future Births _ 159 CHAPTER 7 Understanding Population Characteristics 162 7.1 Accounting for Age Distribution 163 Young and Old Populations. Age Distribution as a Function of Rate of Increase. Neutral and Nonneutral Change in Mortality. Accounting for Observed Ages. Are Birth or Death Rates the Major Influence on Age Distribution? 7.2 Why There Are More Women Than Men at Older Ages in Modern Populations 170 7.3 The Stable Equivalent 172 Population Projection and the Stable Approximation Thereto. Applica- tion of the Stable Equivalent Q. Relation Between Q and Reproductive Value V. A More General Stable Equivalent 7.4 Age at Marriage 178 A Sum of Random Intervals Model. Small Marriage Circles. How Many Households Are Implied by Birth, Death, and Marriage Rates? Intrinsic Rates of Natural Increase: Age, Parity, and Nuptiality. The Life Cycle. Married and Divorced. The Current Divorce-Marriage Ratio 7.5 The Foreign-born and Internal Migrants 190 A Matrix Analysis. Migration and AgeContents xvii 7.6 Human Stocks and Flows 192 7.7 The Demography of Organizations 197 Loss of Power. Organizing Political Success. Economic Hierarchies CHAPTER 8 Projection and Forecasting 201 8.1 Forecasting: Both Unavoidable and Impossible. Past Data, Present Action, and Future Conditions of Payoff 201 Heavy Stakes on Simultaneous Lotteries. Projection as Distinct from Prediction 8.2 The Technique of Projection 205 Survivorship. Reproduction. Extension to All Ages and Both ***es. Age Versus Other Variables. Projection in a Heterogeneous Population 8.3 Applications of Projection 212 Population Dynamics with One Cause of Death Eliminated. Effect of Immediate Drop to Replacement Fertility 8.4 The Search for Constancies 217 Relational Methods. Mortality. Are Longitudinal Relations Demon- strated by Cross-Sectional Data? 8.5 Features of Forecasting and Forecasting Error 221 Extrapolation Versus Mechanism. Shape of the Projection Fan 8.6 The Components of Forecasting Error ex ante 227 The Length of the Experience Base 8.7 Ex post Evaluation of Point Estimates 230 Future Percentage Increase 8.8 A Division of Labor 233 The Loss Function Permits a Three-Way Division of Labor 8.9 Interval Estimates as Currently Provided 235 Official Agencies Have Backed into Confidence Intervals CHAPTER 9 Some Types of Instability 237 9.1 Absolute Change in Mortality the Same at All Ages 237 Inferring the Increase in Births. Increase in Person-Years in Cohort 9.2 Proportional Change in Mortality 240 Rate of Increase of Births. Change of l . Increase in Total Cohort 0 Population. Increase of Persons of Arbitrary Age 9.3 Changing Birth Rates 243 9.4 Announced Period Birth Rate Too High 245xviii Contents 9.5 Backward Population Projection 250 Application 9.6 The Time to Stability 255 The Criterion of Convergence. Use of the Characteristic Equation. An Exact Ratio of Partial Derivatives and an Approximation Thereto. Allowance for Different Ranges of Variance and Skewness Among Observed Populations. Time to Convergence. Theoretical Versus Empirical Relations 9.7 Retirement Pensions: Pay-as-You-Go Versus Actuarial Reserves 262 9.8 The Demography of Educational Organizations Under Changing Age Distributions 265 9.9 Two Levels of Students and Teachers 267 9.10 Mobility in an Unstable Population 269 9.11 The Easterlin Effect 270 CHAPTER 10 The Demographic Theory of Kinship 273 10.1 Probability of Living Ancestors 275 Counting Method. Probability Method. Living Mother by the Counting Method. Living Mother by Conditional Probability. Probability of Living Grandmother. Numerical Examples. Stable Results Versus a Kinship Census. An Approximation 10.2 Descendants 282 10.3 Sisters and Aunts 285 A Paradox: The Average Girl Seems to Have Too Many Sisters. Age Incidence of Childbearing Conditional on Birth of One Child. Aunts 10.4 Mean and Variance of Ages 289 Ascertainment 10.5 Generalization to Changing Rates of Birth and Death 291 10.6 Sensitivity Analysis 292 Decomposition of M (a), the Probability of a Living Mother. Other x Progenitors. Effect of Birth Pattern on Living Progenitors. Comparison of Effect of Birth and Death Rates 10.7 The Inverse Problem: Deriving Rates from Genealogies 299 10.8 Incest Taboo and Rate of Increase 300 10.9 The Bias Imposed by Age Difference on Cross-Cousin Marriage 301Contents xix CHAPTER 11 Microdemography 303 11.1 Births Averted by Contraception 303 Abstention. Births Averted—the Causal Inference. Marginal Effect. Dropping the Contraceptive. Why 1000 Abortions Do Not Prevent 1000 Births in a Population. Abortion as a Backup to Contraception 11.2 Measurement of Fertility and Fecundity 315 Probability of Conception by Days of the Month. Mean Fecundity from Surveys. Homogeneous Populations. A Heterogeneous Popula- tion with Fecundity Constant for Each Woman. The Pearl Index Is the Harmonic Mean of the Distribution. The Gini Fertility Measure. Comparison of Pearl and Gini Estimates. Excursus on Averages. Graduation Uses Information Efficiently. Mean and Variance Simul- taneously Estimated by Graduation. Life Table Methods for Fertility. Relation of Micro to Population Replacement. How Surer Contracep- tion Reduces the Interval Between Births 11.3 Why Three-Child Families Constitute a Population Explosion, Whereas Two-Child Families Would Lead to the Extinction of Mankind 330 11.4 A Family-Building Strategy to Avoid Extinction 332 11.5 *** Preference and the Birth Rate 335 An Approximation to the Harmonic Mean 11.6 Family-Building Strategy with Parental Control Over *** of Children 338 11.7 Mean Family Size from Order-of-Birth Distribution 344 11.8 Parity Progression and Population Increase 345 11.9 For a Given Probability of Survivors, Lower Mortality Lowers the Rate of Increase 347 CHAPTER 12 The Multi-state Model 350 12.1 Single Decrement and Increment-Decrement 352 Matrix of Inputs 12.2 The Kolmogorov Equation 355 The Multiplicative Property. Probabilities Over Long Intervals 12.3 Expected Time in the Several States 358 Fertility Expectations 12.4 Projection 361XX Contents 12.5 Transition Versus Instantaneous Probability of Moving 362 12.6 Stable Population 366 CHAPTER 13 368 Family Demography 369 13.1 Definitions Classifications. Theory and Statistical Compilation 371 13.2 Kinship of Inference from Kin Counts. Widowhood. Theoretical Number Families in the Population. Decomposing Widowhood 376 13.3 The Life Cycle Shape of Family Tree. Headship 379 13.4 Household Size Distribution Separate Living 381 13.5 Economic, Political and Biological Theory 13.6 Family Policy 383 CHAPTER 14 Heterogeneity and Selection in Population Analysis 385 Historical Note 14.1 Conditioning and the Interpretation of Statistical Data 387 Simpson's Paradox 14.2 Heterogeneity and Selection 390 14.3 Application to Mortality 391 A Mixture of Populations Having Different Rates of Increase. Two Classes of Frailty. Numerical Effect on Mortality. Frailty Varying Over Time 14.4 Continuous Distribution of Increase and of Frailty 395 Continuous Distribution of Frailty 14.5 Experimentation 399 CHAPTER 15 Epilogue: How Do We Know the Facts of Demography? 400 15.1 Growing Populations Have Smaller Proportions of Old People 402 Older Population as a Function of Rate of Increase When All Else Is Constant. Are Births or Deaths Decisive? 15.2 Promotion in Organizations 407 15.3 No Model, No Understanding 409Contents xxi 15.4 Too Many Models 410 15.5 Effect of Development on Population Increase 411 15.6 Effect of Population Growth on Development 412 15.7 How Nature Covers Her Tracks 414 The Oblique Use of Data to Challenge Theory 15.8 The Psychology of Research 417 Bibliography 419 Index 435 Versand D: 2,95 EUR Mathematik, Soziologie, Gesellschaft.

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